Rural expansion, according to telecoms analysts Frost and Sullivan, is critical for sustained growth in Sub-Saharan Africa’s increasingly important ICT sector.

The proliferation of mobile phones in the sub-region is phenomenal: nearly a half of all Africans have cellphones, compared to a mere 2% a decade ago. This exponential growth in mobile subscription and usage is redounding significantly in economic and social terms, as ICTs are localized and used to structure and strengthen key industries. The economic impact of the industry is evident through the work of organizations like TextToChange, Ushahidi and communities like MobileActive.org, which all leverage mobiles for innovative development interventions.

But the massive wave of mobile adoption happening across Sub-Saharan Africa, despite a significant lag in broadband access, is vastly uneven: there’s a pernicious urban-rural divide that leaves tens of millions of vulnerable people behind.

I reckon that contemporary market imperatives will change this. This is premised on the fact that although mobile subscription is on the uptick, and is projected to grow, the market is highly concentrated in urban spaces. The high concentration of subscribers in urban corridors is exacerbated by intensifying competition, which makes for impending market saturation. This is likely to dwindle the telecoms giants’ share of the nearly $60 billion industry.

As the profit motive gets squeezed, rural expansion will become an inevitability. In fact, that is the case today, but a series of structural problems is slowing this market-led roll-out into more rustic places. Chief among the impediments is the cost of doing business in the sub-region. According to The World Bank Enterprise Surveys, indirect costs pose a competitive burden on African firms. These costs, largely associated with infrastructure and service provision, are usually significantly higher in less developed contexts, particularly rural parts of already highly undeveloped countries such as those in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Despite the challenges to expansion, there is great incentive for those telecoms firms with the foresight to expeditiously move into unconnected/under-served rural markets. Those that do will reap great benefits in the short to medium term.

The inevitable shift towards rural service provision will be costly, but that will also create opportunities to restructure cumbersome organizations with limited income streams. As Frost and Sullivan’s ICT Business Unit Leader for Africa, Birgitta Cederstrom, notes, outsourcing, managed services and co-location are set to become critical operational strategies.

The expected growth in broadband subscription in Africa to 265 million by 2015 should spur a shift from heavy concentration on voice subscription to more low-cost data strategies and models. This will be increasingly important for meeting the needs of  urban consumers and enterprises.