In the intricate dance of geopolitics, water security stands out as a common concern and a potential catalyst for collaboration. Central and South Asia, regions endowed with abundant rivers and basins, face the dual challenges of water scarcity and the impacts of climate change. USAID is working with Central Asia Governments and research institutions—under the Asia Emerging Opportunities (AEO) mechanism—to evaluate the status and possible causes of lower-than-usual regional water supplies. Over the past year, Integra has delivered snowmelt and glacier melt training modules in Central Asia using data from eight primary river basins to continue this work.

The Wilson Center, a renowned institution for advancing policy dialogue, partnered with Integra to host an event titled “Water at Wilson: MODSNOW – A New Tool for Water Security in Central and South Asia.” The gathering convened experts and stakeholders to explore innovative solutions to the region’s pressing water challenges.

Kicking off with a warm welcome from Lauren Risi, Program Director of the Environmental Change and Security Program at the Wilson Center, the event proceeded with opening remarks from esteemed representatives, including Änjali Kaur, Deputy Assistant Administrator, Asia Bureau, USAID and Ambassador Sridhar Khatri of Nepal. Deputy Administrator Kaur stated, “We’re proud to have partnered with Integra to develop the simple yet remarkably effective MODSNOW, designed to empower governments and Asian communities to monitor water flows from high mountains. This is critical not only for the immediate needs of the present but also for the long-term sustainability and prosperity of future generations.”  Echoing this sentiment, Ambassador Khatri shared that in coordination with Nepal’s ongoing efforts, “the MODSNOW tool developed by Dr. Abror Gafurov, will provide real-time information of water resources and help us to better prepare for disaster response.” Ambassador Baktybek Amanbaev of the Kyrgyz Republic and Ambassador Farrukh Hamralizoda of Tajikistan also spoke about how water security and tools such as MODSNOW are important to their respective countries. These introductory sessions underscored the significance of collaborative efforts in addressing water security issues, setting the stage for a deeper dive into research insights.

Dr. Abror Gafurov, the Innovative Water & Environmental Solutions (IWES) lead researcher, delivered an informative presentation on MODSNOW, a groundbreaking tool designed to revolutionize water resource management by predicting snowmelt patterns in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The subsequent facilitated discussion, expertly moderated by Michael Kugelman, Director of South Asia at the Wilson Center, provided a platform for diverse perspectives and robust dialogue among panelists, including Dr. Eric Rudenshiold, Sherri Goodman, and Mary Melnyk. Audience engagement peaked during the dynamic question-and-answer session, where in-person and online attendees posed thought-provoking queries to the panelists. As the event drew to a close, it left a resonant message of hope and possibility, emphasizing the transformative potential of collaboration and innovation in safeguarding water resources for the future of Central and South Asia.

At its core, MODSNOW represents a fusion of innovation and necessity. The tool leverages advanced modeling techniques to predict snowmelt patterns in a region, often called the “Water Tower of Asia,” as it is the source of major river systems that sustain millions of people downstream. The significance of MODSNOW lies in its ability to provide timely and accurate information about snowmelt dynamics. By integrating satellite data, climate models, and ground observations, the tool offers policymakers and stakeholders crucial insights into water availability and potential risks. This information is invaluable for devising adaptive strategies to mitigate water-related challenges, such as floods, droughts, and the management of transboundary rivers.

During the event, experts highlighted MODSNOW’s multifaceted benefits. By enhancing the understanding of snowmelt processes, the tool empowers governments to make informed decisions regarding water allocation, infrastructure development, and climate adaptation measures. Furthermore, MODSNOW fosters regional cooperation by facilitating data sharing and collaborative research initiatives, transcending political boundaries to pursue shared water security goals.

Tanzanian Farmers Using Smartphone

Photo Credit: Sauti ya wakulima

Through a collaborative knowledge base, farmers from the Chambezi region of the Bagamoyo District in Tanzania are using smartphones equipped with GPS modules and an application that makes it easy to send pictures and sounds to the Internet. The smartphones are used to document their daily practices, make reports about their observations regarding changes in climate and related issues, and also to interview other farmers, expanding thus their network of social relationships and engaging in a process of mutual learning.

This is just one of the stories of local people innovating through the challenges they face on the field. Over the years, local people are known to innovate due to necessity, changing conditions, and curiosity, doing informal experiments on new ideas either from their own ingenuity or learned from other farmers, researchers, extensionists and other information sources like the mass media. But over and over again, scientists have learnt very little about these innovations in order to take advantage of them to improve their scientific research work.

The farmers at Chambezi not only struggle because of insufficient infrastructure and unreliable markets for their products, but they are also facing the challenges of a changing local climate. Less rains, less underground water and unprecedented threats caused by pests and plant diseases are some of the pressing issues that they have to deal with. However, they know that by sharing their knowledge on how to cope with these problems, they can become stronger and find ways to overcome them. They hope that, by communicating their observations to extension officers and scientific researchers, who can be in remote locations, they can participate in the design of new strategies for adaptation.

In order for their voices to be heard, the farmers gather audiovisual evidence of their practices using smartphones and publish images and voice recordings on the Internet.  The project, which started early this year, is currently being sponsored by the North South Center of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, with the support of the Department of Botany of the University of Dar es Salaam and the Zurich Node of the Planetary Collegium (Z-Node). The participants of Sauti ya wakulima, a group of five men and five women, who gather every Monday at the agricultural station in Chambezi, use a laptop computer and a 3G Internet connection to view the images and hear the voice recordings that they posted during the week. They also pass the two available smartphones on to other participants, turning the phones into shared tools for communication.

For more information about this innovation, visit the Sauti ya wakulima blog and site.

Map of Africa

Photo Credit: Zunia

The President of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), Mr. Kanayo F. Nwanze, hosted a virtual press conference from his Rome office yesterday, September 29 to discuss why he believes Africa can ensure its own food security through investment in agriculture, with particular focus on West Africa.

The interactive press briefing touched on a number of pressing and interesting issues relating to African agriculture. According to Mr. Nwanze, reducing rural poverty in Africa is a high priority for IFAD, and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains IFAD’s highest priority, absorbing as much as 40% of new commitments. IFAD investment in Africa and SSA is more than 50% of IFAD’s total investment worldwide. With years of investment and working relations with African experts and governments, IFAD has accumulated a rich experience of what works and doesn’t work in Africa.

The agency has identified with the great challenges facing African agriculture including volatile food prices, changing climate, the challenge of feeding its populace, land grabbing, among others. But at the same time, sees great promise for Africa in the face of all these challenges. Africa has the highest share of the world’s arable land for agriculture, with West Africa alone holding about 284 million hectares of arable land available for investment. Out of this, only 60 million are currently in use. In addition, the region has more than 10 million hectares of land that could be irrigated, but it barely uses 10% of this to its full value. About 60% of Sub-Sahara African is under 25 years of age with high skills and training to be tapped for agricultural growth.

I asked Mr Nwanze what IFAD’s view is on policies that ensure investment in ICTs for agricultural development in Africa. He referenced the on-going Agricultural Knowledge Share Fair (AgShareFair) in Rome with support from IFAD and other UN agencies that brought together people from all over the world including Africa with innovative information and communication technologies for knowledge sharing. IFAD is also supporting many projects in the area of mobile telephony, mobile banking, last mile etc. that are helping in the advancement of agriculture in Africa. Also the use of this virtual press briefing by the President, which made possible for people to participate remotely attests to IFAD’s recognition and commitment to ICTs for development. On policies guiding the creation and administration of Universal Service and Access Funds (USAF) in African countries, Mr. Nwanze recalled a recent meeting by ITU that brought together telecom regulators together to deliberate on its application for development.

Responding to another question from the press as to why Africa is starving, the President stated that Africa is not starving. He cited booming economies in Africa such as Ghana, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Ethiopia where African governments are pursuing sound economic policies thereby enabling the growth of their economies. He cited Ghana as an example that made enormous stride and has great promise for growth with the possibility of transitioning into middle-income country in the near future. He was quick to state, however, that he is ‘no prophet of the future’ to tell how things will turn in these countries. Referring to the crises at the Horn of Africa, the President said agriculture must be made a priority in Africa by all who are interested in reducing poverty and ensuring food security. He called on African leaders to “act now: investing in agriculture is the best way to prevent famines.” African leaders must take the lead and invest in agriculture – no people or nation can make progress with sole external support, the President stated.

On the possibility of investing in green energy for Africa’s agriculture, Mr. Nwanze said it depends on how one defines green energy. According to him, African farmers are already practicing green energy in their farm practices through good soil management practices to prevent erosion and the like.

My main take of the press briefing applies to the question of Mr Nwanze’s view on ICTs investments by African people for agricultural development in Africa. Mr. Nwanze pointed some interesting initiatives by IFAD to expand access to ICTs in rural Africa but it is not clear how much of this is being spearheaded by Africans themselves. On the issue of availability of vast arable lands, huge youth population, and skills in Africa for investment, it is difficult to see how that translate into food security and prevention of future famine in Africa. In this era where Africa is experiencing more and more rural-urban migrations, not only the youth but also the older generations, as a result of declining opportunities and lack of incentives for farming, policies should go beyond mere recognition of ‘rich resources’ on the continent. The President did not mince his words by calling on African leaders to act now, but I also think that there is so much to explore outside African governments and political leaders. The call for investing in low-cost and simple technologies such as information and communication technologies for example should be a fertile ground for Africa’s young entrepreneurs. By creating a conducive environment for investment, Africa could see a wave of young investors especially in the ICTs sector.

Mr. Nwanze also responded to questions from the press covering areas of good governance for agricultural development, south-south collaborations for knowledge transfer to Africa, investment in post-conflict countries such as Liberia, the use of subsidies, and examples of successful models of agricultural development in Africa. The session was covered by over 25 different media outlets across the world in the area of radio, TV, magazine, blogs, multimedia press such as Voice of America, Voice of Nigeria, Deutsche Welle (DW), the Organic Farmer, Think Africa Press, and the Global Broadband for Innovation Program of USAID.

Climate change is already posing challenges to agricultural productivity worldwide, and the sector is likely to encounter severe water woes as this intensifies. However, water management, which is crucial for sustainable agriculture, improved rural livelihoods and food security, has not yet been sufficiently harnessed and employed across Sub-Saharan Africa.

Consequently, immense opportunities for growth and economic

Picture showing an irrigation system- green plants being watered.

Credit: A Guide To Irrigation Methods — Irrigation Systems

advancement are being missed. Proper irrigation is vital for sustained agricultural growth, according to the FAO. The UN agency says efficient irrigation practices could result in increased crop yields of up to 400%. Yet, farmers across Sub-Saharan Africa, who are most dependent on rainfall, are hamstrung by a landscape with the fewest rainfall monitoring stations in the world, which are also complicated to read. This challenge is compounded by an unreliable climate information dissemination mechanism.

But, as with all challenges in the sector, new technologies are emerging that could provide better information for planning. Rainwatch, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) funded climate information system, seems set to help West African farmers, in particular, to overcome their water management challenges.

NOAA says Rainwatch uses GIS to “monitor monsoon rainfall and tracks season rainfall attributes”. It automatically streamlines rainfall data management, processing and visualization. The user-firendly tool has interactive faces, symbols and self-explanatory names. This simplicity eliminates the need for external assistance, including satellite information, to make use of the tool.

The successful 2009 piloting of the project, coupled with the abundant returns to farmers in Niger last year, a country with chronic water management issues, shows that there is great potential behind scaling-up this project. A key challenge will be getting farmers to use the technology, but the demonstrable benefits will prove to be a strong selling point.

The NOAA funded project received support from the African Center of Meteorological Applications for Development and CIMMS.

EGdrought510An Egyptian rice farmer shows his drought damaged rice crop in a village near Balqis on June 14, 2008. REUTERS/Nasser Nuri 

LONDON (AlertNet) – For African farmers struggling to cope with increasingly erratic conditions linked to climate change, there’s good – and bad – news.

The good news is that in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, scientists can now issue reasonably reliable seasonal climate forecasts a month or more in advance of the planting season, giving growers a chance to opt for different kinds of crops or other measures to adapt to upcoming conditions.

That has the potential to improve food security in many climate-vulnerable parts of Africa, and reduce the impact on some of the world’s poorest people of droughts, floods and temperature surges.

The bad news is that those forecasts, and other historical weather information farmers need to judge risk and make good decisions, still are not reaching most growers, in part because meteorological data in many African countries is available only at a cost.

Weather information “is an essential resource for adaptation (to climate change) and development,” said James W. Hansen, a researcher on climate change, agriculture and food security at the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) and lead author of a new report on seasonal climate forecasting and agriculture in Africa.

But “as long as these (data) are seen as a revenue source for Met services rather than as a public good for development, the people who are most affected by climate change, climate variability and poverty won’t have much access to innovations,” he said in a telephone interview.

Growing climate variability is making life increasingly difficult for farmers throughout sub-Saharan Africa. Some areas, particularly in southern and eastern Africa, are seeing extended droughts and high temperatures that can make growing staples like maize a challenge. Other regions, including parts of West Africa, have struggled with extreme rainfall.

Altogether “dependence on uncertain rainfall and exposure to climate risk characterize the livelihoods of roughly 70 percent of (sub-Saharan Africa’s) population,” notes the study, published in the journal Experimental Agriculture in March.

SOME PREDICTABLE REGIONS

But scientists are getting increasingly good at predicting seasonal climate conditions in advance, largely because of growing understanding of how Pacific Ocean temperatures – linked to weather phenomena like El Nino and La Nina – influence rainfall in sub-Saharan Africa.

While it is still very difficult to predict seasonal conditions in some parts of Africa – including across the Sahara and the northern parts of the Sahel – other areas are showing potential for predictability, at least in some seasons. They include much of southern Africa up to southern Zambia; a swath of East Africa centered on Kenya; a wide band of West Africa reaching from the Atlantic coast across to Sudan; and a stretch of west-central Africa from the Atlantic coast into the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Already, “skillful forecasts can be produced more than a month before the normal start of the growing season for the short rains in eastern Africa and the main rainy season in southern Africa,” the study noted.

Just as important, the regional forecasts can be “downscaled” to provide more specific local forecasts with only “modest” loss of accuracy, the study said.

So why aren’t seasonal forecasts yet reaching farmers, particularly given that studies show most are eager to get and act on the information?

Largely it’s the result of communication failures, Hansen said. Meteorologists in many regions tend to oversimplify forecasts, telling farmers there will be higher rainfall, for instance, rather than a 60 percent chance of higher than normal rainfall.

That has led to a lack of trust, particularly when oversimplified predictions don’t come true.

“If I were a smallholder farmer and a climate scientists said it would be more or less rainy, I’d be extremely skeptical. A lot would depend on how much I trust that person,” Hansen noted.

The reality is “farmers understand probability very well. Their lives depend on it,” he said. Leaving the probabilities off forecasts undermines trust and reliability, he said.

But perhaps the most severe problem, he said, is that many African meteorological services see weather data as something to be sold to paying clients – airports, insurance firms, development organizations – rather than released as a public good.

That view is in part the result of structural reforms driven by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, aimed at reducing the hand of governments – often seen as corrupt or inefficient – in services including meteorology, Hansen said. The reforms left many meteorological services dependent on commercial sales of data for funding, he said, a model that is providing difficult to change.

CHANGING THE FUNDING MODEL

Still, efforts are underway. An initiative in Kenya called WIND – Weather Information for Development – aims to help Kenya’s meteorological service find new sources of revenue and make better decisions about what data should be commercialized and what made publicly available free.

In other countries, researchers hope to tempt government meteorological services into releasing satellite data free in exchange for access to information from ground weather stations runs by research organizations.

“If we can get one or two (countries) to break out, and they get new visibility and funding, maybe there can be a domino effect,” Hansen said.

Better seasonal climate forecasts won’t help ease surging food prices around the world, because the surges are driven by rising demand, the scientist warned.

But in some of the poorest parts of the world, good seasonal climate forecasts have the potential to help curb hunger, protect incomes and get some of the world’s most climate-vulnerable people through bad years.

“The ability to anticipate climate fluctuations and their impact on agriculture months in advance should, in principle, enable… opportunities to manage risk,” the study noted.

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